Date of Award
5-7-2020
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Information Science
First Advisor
Daniel Berleant
Abstract
Recent research has suggested that progress in technological domains often improves in an exponential manner. The traditional method to model this increase in capability has been to fit a model with time or effort as an independent variable and then extrapolate the trend (Moore, 1965, Wright, 1936, Magee et al., 2014). Although other methods have been used as well (Nagy et al, 2013). While effective, these methods are not the only way to forecast such trends and they have their own limitations. Recent research has indicated that a potentially useful approach for modeling technological improvement is time series analysis. I use this approach to build on previous research which suggests that space exploration technology displays an exponential trend. This trend can be measured with the metric of spacecraft lifespan. Time series models of this improvement will be shown along with forecasts for future improvement. Finally, further directions for future research will be explored.
Recommended Citation
Howell, Michael Christopher, "How Predictable Is Space Exploration?" (2020). Theses and Dissertations. 934.
https://research.ualr.edu/etd/934
